Scan & Sense method guide
Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning builds several plausible future contexts from important and uncertain drivers.
Beginner-friendly guide · 4 min read
What Scenario Planning does
Scenario Planning builds several plausible future contexts from important and uncertain drivers.
Scenario planning creates several coherent descriptions of how the external environment could develop. The purpose is not to predict the winner. It is to expose assumptions and help a team make choices that remain sensible across uncertainty.
Good scenarios share one focal question and time horizon, but differ on the drivers that matter most. Each should be plausible, internally coherent and distinct enough to change the strategic conversation.
Scenarios are not forecasts. Established scenario practice uses deliberately contrasting plausible futures to challenge assumptions, expose contingent choices and identify early warning indicators.[1][2][3][4]
The axes are not predictions. They are a disciplined way to create and compare plausible contexts.
Uncertainty 2: low to high
Uncertainty 1: low to high
InnovationFlow explanatory schematic, synthesised from the method sources[1][2][3][4].
Understand the method
The parts in plain language
When to use it
- When a decision is exposed to high uncertainty over a meaningful time horizon.
- When one dominant forecast is suppressing discussion of alternatives.
A practical workflow
- 1
Frame the focal decision, scope and horizon.
- 2
Identify drivers, then compare their importance and uncertainty.
- 3
Construct a small set of coherent and genuinely different future worlds.
- 4
Test options across the worlds and define indicators, no-regret moves and contingent actions.
Fictional worked example
Example: future industrial services
This example is illustrative rather than a reported case. A team uses energy-price stability and data-regulation intensity as two critical uncertainties.
Observation:Customers invest confidently but require strong assurance.
Implication:Build compliance and integration capabilities early.
Observation:Savings matter urgently while purchasing remains cautious.
Implication:Offer rapid-payback modules and flexible contracts.
Observation:Local experimentation grows, but standards fragment.
Implication:Prioritise adaptability and partner coverage.
From analysis to decision
How to interpret the result
- 1Look for no-regret moves that help in several worlds.
- 2Identify contingent options that should start only when a named indicator appears.
- 3Record early warning indicators and review them, rather than filing the scenarios after one workshop.
The interpretation guidance is an InnovationFlow synthesis of[1][2][3][4].
What a useful output looks like
Common pitfalls
- Do not label best, worst and expected forecasts as scenarios.
- Keep the scenarios plausible and relevant to the same focal decision.
References and method basis
- [1]Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40. Source ↗Original method source
- [2]Shell (n.d.). What are Shell Scenarios?. Shell Scenarios. Source ↗Originating institution
- [3]Phaal, R. and collaborators (n.d.). Cambridge Roadmapping templates. Cambridge Roadmapping. Source ↗Originating institution
- [4]Phaal, R. and Muller, G. (2009). An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(1), 39–49. Source ↗Peer-reviewed research
This guide synthesises the named sources into practical questions for strategy and innovation work. It does not claim that using a tool by itself produces a successful decision.