Scan & Sense method guide
Trend Explorer
Trend Explorer compares weak signals and trends by domain, impact, maturity and time horizon.
Beginner-friendly guide · 4 min read
What Trend Explorer does
Trend Explorer compares weak signals and trends by domain, impact, maturity and time horizon.
A trend radar helps a team organise evidence about change without pretending that every observation is a forecast. It separates early signals from better-established trends and makes timing, impact and uncertainty visible.
The useful unit is a clearly described change supported by dated evidence. Several signals may support one trend. The team then decides whether to monitor it, investigate it, test a response or act now.
Roadmapping and technology-intelligence research both distinguish signal capture from strategic interpretation. A trend becomes useful when its evidence, likely timing, uncertainty and decision relevance are visible.[1][2][3]
Signals sit at the edge. Better-evidenced and more decision-relevant trends move closer to action.
Original InnovationFlow illustration. Example values and software behaviour are explained in this guide; method sources are listed below.
Understand the method
The parts in plain language
Signals
Signals are individual observations that may indicate change, such as a patent cluster, new customer behaviour, a policy proposal or an unusual investment. One signal is rarely enough to establish a trend.
Illustrative example
Three customers independently ask whether equipment can report product-level energy use.
Trends
A trend is a pattern supported by several observations over time. Describe its direction, scope, evidence and possible mechanism rather than using a broad label.
Illustrative example
Industrial buyers increasingly request auditable product-carbon data in supplier selection.
Horizon and response
Position trends by when they may matter and what response is proportionate. Near does not always mean important, and distant does not always mean ignorable.
Illustrative example
Monitor an immature standard, investigate an emerging customer requirement, and act on a requirement already entering tenders.
When to use it
- After external scanning has produced many signals.
- When leaders need a shared view of emerging change without pretending to forecast one future.
A practical workflow
- 1
Combine related observations into a clearly named trend.
- 2
Record evidence, direction, maturity, time horizon and potential impact.
- 3
Compare trends across domains and challenge the most consequential assumptions.
- 4
Route trends into scenarios, intelligence needs, experiments or roadmap initiatives.
Fictional worked example
Example: product-carbon transparency
This example is illustrative rather than a reported case. A manufacturer is reviewing signals about customer expectations for product-level emissions data.
Observation:Several tenders ask for auditable carbon information.
Implication:Collect examples and identify affected segments.
Observation:Requests appear across customers, markets and industry groups.
Implication:Treat this as more than one buyer preference.
Observation:Current data cannot be produced consistently.
Implication:Open an intelligence need and roadmap a data-capability experiment.
From analysis to decision
How to interpret the result
- 1Separate evidence strength from potential impact.
- 2Give every important trend an owner and review date.
- 3Route uncertainties into intelligence or scenarios, and agreed responses into experiments or the roadmap.
Practical interpretation guidance from InnovationFlow. Refer to the method sources below for the underlying approach.
What a useful output looks like
Common pitfalls
- Do not confuse a fashionable topic with a well-evidenced trend.
- Keep source dates visible because the strength and timing of signals change.
References and method basis
- [1]Kerr, C., Mortara, L., Phaal, R. and Probert, D. (2006). A conceptual model for technology intelligence. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2(1), 73-93. Source ↗Peer-reviewed research
- [2]Mortara, L., Kerr, C., Phaal, R. and Probert, D. (2009). A toolbox of elements to build Technology Intelligence systems. International Journal of Technology Management, 47(4), 322-345. Source ↗Peer-reviewed research
- [3]Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P. and Probert, D.R. (2001). T-Plan: The fast start to Technology Roadmapping - planning your route to success. Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge. Source ↗Original method source
This guide synthesises the named sources into practical questions for strategy and innovation work. It does not claim that using a tool by itself produces a successful decision.