Ideate, Plan & Deliver method guide
Assumption Board
Assumption Board turns uncertain claims into hypotheses, tests, evidence and decisions.
Beginner-friendly guide · 4 min read
What Assumption Board does
Assumption Board turns uncertain claims into hypotheses, tests, evidence and decisions.
An assumption board makes uncertain claims visible before they become expensive commitments. It distinguishes what the team believes from what it has observed, then connects important assumptions to tests and decisions.
A useful assumption is specific and falsifiable. It states who or what is expected to behave in which way, under what conditions, and why the answer matters.
Innovation work becomes more governable when claims are distinguished from evidence and connected to explicit tests. The board supports this discipline without claiming that every uncertainty can be resolved quickly.[1][2]
Testing changes confidence and the next action. Important assumptions remain under review.
Importance: low to high
Uncertainty: low to high
Claim→Test→Evidence→Decision↺
Original InnovationFlow illustration. Example values and software behaviour are explained in this guide; method sources are listed below.
Understand the method
The parts in plain language
Assumption
Write a claim that could be shown wrong. Avoid tasks, hopes and broad topics.
Illustrative example
Priority factories will provide secure machine-data access within four weeks of contract signature.
Importance and uncertainty
Assess how much the decision depends on the claim and how weak current evidence is. High-importance, high-uncertainty assumptions deserve early attention.
Illustrative example
Data access is critical to the service and has not been tested outside one friendly customer.
Test and threshold
Choose the smallest credible way to obtain decision-relevant evidence. Define what result will support, revise or reject the claim before running the test.
Illustrative example
Three representative sites complete access within six weeks using the proposed process.
When to use it
- When a business model, roadmap or idea contains material uncertainty.
- Before committing resources to claims that have not been tested.
A practical workflow
- 1
Write the assumption as a specific, falsifiable claim.
- 2
Assess importance, uncertainty and the decision it affects.
- 3
Define evidence, test, owner, deadline and threshold.
- 4
Record results and decide whether to accept, revise, reject or continue testing.
Fictional worked example
Example: testing willingness to pay
This example is illustrative rather than a reported case. A team assumes customers will buy an annual diagnostic subscription.
Observation:Target maintenance leaders will pay €24,000 per site each year for the defined service.
Implication:The segment, amount and offer are explicit.
Observation:Present a concrete proposal after a diagnostic pilot to six representative customers.
Implication:Behavioural evidence is stronger than asking whether the idea sounds useful.
Observation:At least two customers enter procurement at the target range.
Implication:The result informs pricing and roadmap commitment.
From analysis to decision
How to interpret the result
- 1Prioritise assumptions that can invalidate a major commitment.
- 2Match evidence strength to decision risk.
- 3Keep inconclusive results visible rather than labelling them validated.
Practical interpretation guidance from InnovationFlow. Refer to the method sources below for the underlying approach.
What a useful output looks like
Common pitfalls
- A task is not an assumption.
- Avoid declaring an assumption validated from weak or ambiguous evidence.
References and method basis
- [1]Design Council (2004). The Double Diamond. Design Council. Source ↗Originating institution
- [2]International Organization for Standardization (2024). Innovation management system - Requirements. ISO 56001:2024. Source ↗International standard
This guide synthesises the named sources into practical questions for strategy and innovation work. It does not claim that using a tool by itself produces a successful decision.